Saturday, September 13, 2014

The 2015 Apple Watch is proof that Steve Jobs is dead.

Rest In Peace Steve Jobs.

With Steve Jobs at the helm of Apple Computer, Apple was a market innovator and led the personal computing market, setting the rules and forcing the competition to follow them. On September 9, 2014 Apple went from being a leader to being a follower.

The Apple Watch is not functionally much different then the Moto 360 or Samsung Galaxy Gear or any of the other recently introduced wearable devices. It is too big and heavy to really be a watch and as a device tethered to your phone it offers not much other then the convenience of not taking your phone out of your pocket or your bag.

I have not worn a watch since I got a pager in the mid 90s. In 1997 I even got a fancy bi-directional pager with which I could reply to messages. When I realized I could just glance at the pager to tell the time I realized I never needed to wear a watch again. My pager was, of course, replaced by a smartphone. In this day and age where a smartphone is an essential device that everyone carries, no one needs to wear a watch. People who still do wear watches mostly wear them as jewelry. As a piece of jewelry this thing is big and clunky and, well, it is, like, square, man... While it may be the nicest looking smart watch offered to day (the Moto 360 is another nice one), it looks like something from the stone ages when compared to a designer watch.

The only thing the Apple Watch brings to the market is the health related functions of monitoring your heart rate while working out. I expect this thing will cost $200 - $300 and it is not worth it for that added functionality. The Apple Watch really brings nothing to the market that is not already available from the Motorola or Samsung smart watches. This is why I say Apple has changed positions from leading the market to a market chaser.

To give some specifics, here is what I consider is wrong with the device that should have prevented it from launching:

  • It has to tether to a phone. It has no built in cellular radio to operate as a standalone device. You should be able to "tether" it to a personal computer or tablet that sits at home and be able to choose to take the watch with instead of the phone or even not even own a phone at all anymore since the watch gives you mobile communications while a larger tablet, laptop, or desktop device gives you computing power. 
  • You have to plug it in to charge it every night. Even with the clever mag lock charger you still have to remember to charge it every night. A new wireless charging technology is needed; something with the range of Bluetooth. I think with clever enough engineering you could even have it pull enough power to run the device and charge the battery off of a class 1 bluetooth connection of which the RF signal is harvested for the charging circuitry. Or they could have gone really radical and even integrated a solar charging technology into the touch screen layers. 
  • It is missing an essential accessory that will allow you to place phone calls and listen to streaming music through the device (as a standalone untethered device). Apple just bought Beats audio! They should have spent some time creating a fantastic bluetooth connected headset with the Beats branding that every teenager would kill for and is not so gaudy that you couldn't use it in an office or a restaurant.
  • It is missing the accessory that will allow you to setup an impromptu dance party or movie viewing. A bluetooth connected speaker with HDMI connection out to monitors and maybe even an optional built in 720p projector you could stash in your bag and pull out to start the party and control it all from your wrist.


Remember what the smartphone market looked like before iPhone? The best device out was a heavy Windows Mobile device that required a stylus to use (I had a few of those). Apple watched that market flounder and even see growth for several years before they stepped in with the iPhone and changed the market forever combining the smartphone, digital camera, and iPod into a single device with an intuitive touchscreen interface. Even with the iPhone Apple has decided to follow the market now and make a Phablet with the 5.5" screen on the iPhone 6 Plus. Remember the Steve Jobs keynote where he sung the praises of the 4" screen because it allowed your thumb to travel anywhere on the screen? Well, with iOS8 they added a gimmick to double tap the home button to force the data on the screen to pull down where your thumb can reach it. This also hides the bottom half of the screen until you touch something or double tap again... gimmick.

Remember what the tablet market looked like before iPad? Different tablet configurations were the talk of CES for three years running without anyone making much headway into actually getting people to buy them until Apple stepped in with the iPad and suddenly the tablet market took off like a rocket with many people opting for the much more stable iPad over a laptop.

Apple should not have entered the smart watch market this year. This Apple Watch will still bring lines outside Apple stores when it is released and anyone with a few hundred bucks to burn that already has an iPhone 5 or better that wants to look "Tech Chic" will probably still get one even though no one needs one. I estimate that the total sales of this device will never amount to more then 5% of the active iPhones. Even though this watch may sell more units then all Android based smart watches combined it will still be a flop when compared to the success of the iPhone or iPad initial launches.

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